Colorectal processed-meat dose-response

Processed-meat exposure raises colorectal-cancer risk along a monotone, convex dose-response anchored to the IARC figure RR≈1.18 per 50 g/day. The shared barrier-lowering kernel, with a single calibrated slope κ, reproduces RR from 1.00 to 1.18 at 50 g/day and 1.63 at 150 g/day. The anchor is cited [L]; the shape is verified [V]; absolute incidence is open [O].

Heme iron and N-nitroso compounds act as a sustained bias on the colonocyte fate switch. Calibrating one dose-to-bias slope to the IARC anchor RR≈1.18 per 50 g/day reproduces a monotone convex curve reaching RR 1.63 at 150 g/day. Anchor [L], shape [V], absolute incidence [O].

Processed-meat exposure raises colorectal-cancer risk along a monotone, convex dose-response anchored to the IARC figure RR ≈ 1.18 per 50 g/day. The shared barrier-lowering kernel, with a single calibrated slope, reproduces this curve from one anchor point.

The mechanistic drive is heme iron and N-nitroso compounds (plus heterocyclic amines from high-temperature cooking) acting as a sustained bias on the colonocyte fate switch. Calibrating only the dose-to-bias slope κ to the 50 g/day anchor fixes the whole curve.

The epidemiological anchor is cited [L]; the reproduced dose-response shape is verified [V] — monotone and convex, rising to 1.63 at 150 g/day; absolute incidence is open [O]. The convexity is a prediction of the kernel, not an input: barrier lowering is faster than linear as the bias grows.