Appendix: P29 prereg, data-source registry,

Appendix: P29 prereg, data-source registry, and HOLD roadmap — This appendix centralizes candidate “anchor datasets” used by modules such as P10/P19/P21/P31/P33/P35. In the formal DataPack, these are registered with the same IDs in config/data_sources.yml, and acquisition/processing must be reproducible under the codebook spec.

This appendix centralizes candidate “anchor datasets” used by modules such as P10/P19/P21/P31/P33/P35. In the formal DataPack, these are registered with the same IDs in config/data_sources.yml , and acquisition/processing must be reproducible under the codebook spec.

version: p29_joint_window_prereg_v0_1
enabled: false

data_sources:
  event_window_estimates: data/meta/event_window_estimates.csv

models:
  joint_window:
    method: "weighted_gaussian"
    width_ka: 2.0

metrics:
  p_value_unlock_max: 0.05
  sensitivity_required: true

outputs:
  json: results/p29_joint_window.json
  log: logs/TEST-P29.log

External data source registry (ERL template)

This appendix centralizes candidate “anchor datasets” used by modules such as P10/P19/P21/P31/P33/P35. In the formal DataPack, these are registered with the same IDs in config/data_sources.yml, and acquisition/processing must be reproducible under the codebook spec.

S1. Minimum principles

• (S-PR1) Prefer primary sources (institutional releases / official catalogs).
• (S-PR2) Commercial data may be used, but list an open alternative route; if irreproducible, downgrade the evidence rank (ERL).
• (S-PR3) For each dataset, record mandatory metadata: (id, version, acquisition date, license, hash).

S2. Core anchor list (summary)

S3. Connection to FAIL conditions

• If petroleum distributions/budgets are used as “evidence” in P22/P32, discovery bias must be blocked by P35 (H-DISC) in advance; if blocking fails, downgrade ERL.

HOLD DataPack lock roadmap (ARE→Ice Melt priority)

This appendix fixes a priority order for currently HOLD modules (P8, P9, P10, P12, P14, P17, P22–P23, P25–P28), ranked by direct contribution to the core causal claim ARE→Ice Melt. For each module it sketches required data types / minimum N / representative public repositories (DOI/endpoints) / and automated fetch/normalize scripts. Detailed instructions are synchronized with docs/hold_datapack_roadmap.md and the machine-readable plan config/hold_datapack_plan.yml.

T0. r11 DataPack updates (summary)

• P10 (sediment thickness). The GlobSed v2 thickness grid (data/external/globsed/GlobSed_v2.nc) is included in the bundle, and sediment-thickness profiles along 12 fixed transects (data/sediment/atl_sed_thickness_transects.csv) are extracted. However, the crust-age/spreading-rate grid (DS-AGE-01; EarthByte agegrid) cannot be auto-downloaded in the current sandbox environment, so the age–thickness regression gate is not locked. Therefore P10 remains HOLD.
• P14 (heat flow). The IHFC Global Heat Flow Database (GHFDB-R21; DOI 10.5880/fidgeo.2021.014) is included in the bundle, and an Atlantic-only extraction data/thermal/heatflow_points.csv is generated. But because kinematic constraints and prereg parameters are not fully fixed/executed, P14 remains HOLD.

T1. Priority (fixed)

• Tier 1 (ARE self-constraints; kinematics/geometry/physics): P10 → P14 → P8 → P13 → P12 → P9
• Tier 2 (ARE→ice response bridge; indirect): P24 → P25 → P26 → P23
• Tier 3 (low directness / controversial / non-core): P17, P22, P27, P28

T2. Per-module minimum requirements (summary)

{

}

T3. Locking execution (recommended)

# (1) Lock from Tier 1
python code/fetch_hold_datapacks.py --module P10 --download --normalize
python code/run_hold_gates.py --module P10

python code/fetch_hold_datapacks.py --module P8  --download --normalize
python code/fetch_hold_datapacks.py --module P14 --normalize

# (2) Bridge modules
python code/fetch_hold_datapacks.py --module P24 --download --normalize
python code/run_hold_gates.py --all

# (3) Final roll-up
python code/generate_pass_hold_fail.py