Aging & Senescence · §7

Aging as the universal risk multiplier

As barriers shrink with age, the crossing rate of every pathology kernel rises, so cumulative incidence is convex and steepening — a 52.3× rise between ages 40 and 80 in the model, before immunosenescence is added. This is why a single time axis multiplies risk across unrelated diseases. The shape is [V]; absolute incidence is [O].

A shrinking barrier raises the Kramers crossing hazard, and accumulated crossings give a convex age-incidence curve. Cumulative incidence rises from 0.0056 at age 40 to 0.292 at age 80, a 52.3× increase, steepened further by immunosenescence (the seam to the immune package).

Why one axis multiplies many risks

Most major diseases share a single dominant risk factor: age. On this substrate that is not a coincidence. Every pathology is a barrier-crossing, and aging lowers every barrier, so the crossing hazard of unrelated kernels rises together. The accumulated crossings produce the steep, convex age-incidence curve seen in oncology.

In the model, cumulative incidence climbs from 0.0056 at 40 to 0.292 at 80 — a 52.3× rise — and immunosenescence steepens it further by weakening the clearance loop (the immune seam).

What is claimed

The convex, steepening shape is reproduced and graded [V]. The absolute incidence magnitude is not derivable in-package — it needs external calibration — and is graded [O] with that obstacle stated (§13). This is the cross-cutting seam the package owns for the rest of the framework.