Aging & Senescence · §13
Reproducibility, grading, and the ledger
Every quantity is reproduced deterministically (SEED 19; the result hash is byte-identical across two runs at 62d5e1eb93db…) and graded honestly: mechanisms and the cross-species null result are [V], the copy-number longevity switch is [L], and absolute rates, incidence and lifespans are [O] with stated obstacles.
The discipline is LOCK → Derive → Gate with no tuning: every constant is a measured input or a derived value, never chosen to hit a target. The deterministic engine emits a byte-identical result on repeated runs (2×sha256), and the irreproducibility ledger collects every [O] item with its specific obstacle.
LOCK → Derive → Gate
Inputs are locked, results are derived by fixed rules, and gates check the derivation by count. The vendored substrate math is never re-derived here — the R19 field and its derived stability and dwell laws are defined once in §1; the promoter γ values are measurements; the dynamics are deterministic simulations seeded at 19.
The grade vocabulary
Three grades carry the evidence load. [V] is verified — measured or reproduced in-package. [L] is anchored to a cited result. [O] is open — not reproducible in-package, with the obstacle stated. The grading is the framework's load-bearing claim, not decoration.
- [V] — the drift+catastrophe law (RA1), senescence irreversibility and accumulation (RA2), finite reservoirs and γ-ordering (RA3), the hallmark map (RA4), the convex risk-multiplier shape (RA5), the shared-rate structure (RA6), human-not-special and TP53 flatness (RA7), the archaic cross-sectional observation — per-individual γ, substitution counts, and TERT cancer-hotspot invariance (RA8) — and the telomere-repeat γ invariance, strand symmetry, and lowest-γ ranking (RA9).
- [L] — the copy-number longevity switch (elephant ~20 TP53 copies; Abegglen 2015 JAMA, Sulak 2016 eLife), the cited per-system decline anchors, and telomere length and per-division attrition rates (Harley 1990; Frenck 1998; Aubert & Lansdorp 2008; somatic telomerase suppression in large mammals, Gomes 2011).
- [O] — the γ–lifespan trend (small panel, GC-content confound, phylogenetic non-independence), the “telomere keystone is dynamics, not γ” synthesis (RA9, an interpretation that organizes the package's measured facts), the meaning of the archaic genotype co-occurrences (RA8, a cross-sectional snapshot is silent on mechanism), and every absolute calendar rate, incidence magnitude and lifespan, which need an external clock or calibration the package does not contain.
No tuning
No constant is chosen to hit a target. Noise scales and chronic-stressor magnitudes used in the pathology sweeps are stated, round, and set the relative shape only; the absolute magnitudes they would imply are graded [O]. The irreproducibility ledger lists every [O] item, its obstacle, and its location.