Evidence dossier
Evidence dossier — This section consolidates r16 verdicts in one place to prevent narrative overreach. The goal is to state (i) which quantitative keys locked PASS, (ii) where each module is used in the causal chain, and (iii) what each module does not prove (LOCK → Derive → Gate).
This section consolidates r16 verdicts in one place to prevent narrative overreach. The goal is to state (i) which quantitative keys locked PASS, (ii) where each module is used in the causal chain, and (iii) what each module does not prove (LOCK → Derive → Gate).
This section consolidates r16 verdicts in one place to prevent narrative overreach. The goal is to state (i) which quantitative keys locked PASS, (ii) where each module is used in the causal chain, and (iii) what each module does not prove.
Source of truth.
The authoritative verdict file is results/pass_hold_fail_matrix.csv. This English edition reports the same module statuses as the Korean final.
PASS modules in r16 (summary)
Module Role in the core narrative What PASS means here (boundary) P1 ARE-side prerequisite Atlantic margins are not dominantly subduction-controlled (necessary condition). P4 ARE-side prerequisite Lubrication/low-effective-stress signatures exist at PASS level (necessary condition). P11 Auxiliary boundary condition Mn-nodule constraints disfavor extreme “very young/rapid blanket” scenarios (not a proof of ARE). P13 Auxiliary friction threshold Under priors, continuous drift without threshold slip is disfavored (assumption-dependent; not observation). P16 Downstream response Freshwater/circulation proxies show coherent inflection in the event window (pattern evidence). P19 Downstream response Sea-level budget residual is compatible with basin-volume buffering constraints. P20 Downstream response Misfit rivers and mega-delta timing pass prereg gates (large drainage/discharge compatible). P24 Downstream response (aux) Endorheic low-stand onset clusters near the 4.2 ka window (auxiliary). P29 Procedure/eventness Event-window coherence statistic passes (auxiliary, not causal proof). P30 Procedural hard gate Controls/negative-control registry exists (not a physical validation). P31 Cross-constraint Stress/deformation proxies can be linked quantitatively (partial constraint).
HOLD/FAIL modules (handling rule)
- HOLD modules are not evidence. They may motivate future data collection but must not be cited as support.
- FAIL modules are treated as rejected/counter-evidence within the project rules and must be excluded from the core narrative.