Pre-registered predictions P5 to P7

Pre-registered predictions P5 to P7 — Structural/stratigraphic/chronologic indicators that point to early Atlantic opening should cluster in a narrow window rather than disperse over long durations. Indicators of initial oceanic crust formation, timing indicators for major fault-zone formation, transition points in sedimentary records.

Observable signature. Structural/stratigraphic/chronologic indicators that point to early Atlantic opening should cluster in a narrow window rather than disperse over long durations.

Observable signature. Structural/stratigraphic/chronologic indicators that point to early Atlantic opening should cluster in a narrow window rather than disperse over long durations.

Data (minimum). Indicators of initial oceanic crust formation, timing indicators for major fault-zone formation, transition points in sedimentary records.

Test (example). Perform a clustering test (e.g., kernel density / change-point detection) on the “signal occurrence time” distribution, and UNLOCK if the pre-registered “width” threshold is met.

P6: Spatiotemporal propagation pattern

Observable signature. Opening signals (P5) should not appear “everywhere simultaneously”; they should appear first near candidate nucleation points (S1/S2/N1, etc.) and then propagate in time along ridge/fracture-zone systems. Propagation may exhibit slowdowns/delays at major fracture zones or strong-contrast segments.

Data (minimum). A table of early-opening indicators per margin (stratigraphic transition points/fault-swarm formation/early oceanic crust indicators, etc.) with location (lat/lon) and uncertainty (dating error).

Test (example). Given a set of nucleation-point candidates and a segment-wise speed function v(s)=v₀φ(s), fit the observation times by a travel-time model t(s)=∫ ds/v(s). UNLOCK if pre-registered residual criteria (e.g., weighted RMSE, or BIC improvement) are met.

FALSIFIER. If no candidate/speed model reproduces the propagation order, or reproduction requires unrealistic v(s) (e.g., globally ultra-fast/ultra-slow), the zipper-propagation component (AR-3) is HOLD or FAIL.

P7: Scalability test

Observable signature. If the engine (suction + low friction) is universal physics, the same dimensionless adjudication (e.g., Λ) should apply not only at the Atlantic scale but also at smaller length scales (smaller basins with smaller L).

Candidate data. In small basins (e.g., Red Sea, certain coastal basins), collect: (1) whether rapid opening/rupture ordering exists, (2) low-friction/fluid-involvement signatures (analogous to P4), (3) constraints on opening width and time window.

Test (example). Compute the same form of adjudication ratio Λ for each basin and apply the same threshold as for the Atlantic (e.g., probability of Λ>1). If the same threshold persists under down-scaling, the model's universality is strengthened.

FALSIFIER. If the same equation does not hold in small basins and entirely different forces/mechanisms must be assumed, the scope must be reduced to an “Atlantic-specific case” (claim scope contraction).

r17 field test (attempt to narrow the master HOLD; outcome: HOLD stands). The feasibility edge predicts d_crit∝√(W) (Section §16): ~2.7 km (Afar), ~3.3 km (Red Sea), ~1.5 km (Baikal), ~12 km (Atlantic). We compared this to the observed seismogenic/brittle–ductile (BDT) depth across natural analogs (Afar, Red Sea, East African Rift, Baikal, Atlantic margin). The result is honestly negative for a clean √(W) test: the observed depth does not scale with width — Spearman(d_obs,W)=-0.56, with the decisive counterexample that the narrower Baikal rift (cold, ~Archean-bordering lithosphere) is seismogenic to ~35–40 km whereas the wider but hot Afar is shallow (≲15 km). Instead the observed depth is governed by lithospheric temperature/age, Spearman(d_obs,coldness)=+1.00 (consistent with the BDT being thermally controlled; Zuza & Cao).

The reason is structural: the observable detachment depth is the thermal upper bound d_BDT, not the suction–friction lower edge d_crit. The predicted d_crit lies below d_BDT in every basin (the feasibility window is formally open), but rifts do not let us observe d_crit directly. Therefore the natural analogs do not close the master-scale HOLD (Section §16); narrowing it requires scale-matched continuum simulation. What the data do corroborate is the mechanism's separate siting prediction — deep detachment requires cold, thick, old lithosphere (Baikal ~37 km; thick-lithosphere East Africa ~30–40 km), with hot rifts shallow — so “cold-craton favored” has empirical support even though the √(W) edge remains untested.